MMR · exposure intelligence · Pricing at launch
How the world connects to your world.
Mimir maps how entities, events, and holdings connect, so a headline three steps from your portfolio surfaces before it reaches the price. You watch the map; the map watches the world.
Mimir, as it runs · illustrative sample
· 01 / The work
Questions the map answers.
Exposure is rarely direct. The thing that moves your position is usually two or three steps away from it, in a place you were not watching.
What do I hold that touches this?
Start from an event and walk outward to the positions it reaches, with the path shown rather than asserted.
Exposure paths · The event ledger
What is three steps from my book?
Follow second- and third-order links, so a supplier of a supplier surfaces before the price tells you about it.
The graph · Typed edges · Evidence
Has this happened before?
Check the event against a curated library of historical analogs, and what actually moved for each subject around them.
Analog events · Realized per-subject moves
How bad could this get?
Low, base and severe scenarios with the revenue at risk named, or an honest refusal when the inputs will not support one.
Impact scenarios · Named inputs
· 02 / One event, three hops
Watch it reach you.
Exposure is rarely direct. Here is a single event, followed outward until it touches something you hold. Every step is typed, weighted, and carries the evidence that put it there.
00
The event arrives
A transit halt in a shipping lane. It names no company and appears in no filing, so nothing in a portfolio tool reacts to it.
Ledger · deduped across 3 feeds
Severity · withheld, warming
01
Rates move first
The halt reaches container rates before it reaches anyone's numbers. This edge is the cheap one: well sampled, and it holds up.
Relation · affects_cost
Weight · 0.71 · 214 samples
02
A supplier absorbs it
Freight cost lands on lead times at a foundry two steps removed from anything you searched for.
Relation · supplies
Weight · 0.44 · 96 samples
03
It reaches your book
Three hops from a shipping lane to a position you hold. The path is the answer, and every step of it is checkable.
Path · 3 hops
Confidence · lowest edge governs
Illustrative sample of one pathNothing here is synthesized
· 03 / Behind one edge
Every edge carries its receipt.
Any graph can draw a line between two things. The difference is whether it can show you why the line is there. Open hop 01 and this is underneath it.
The edge
from · Red Sea transit halt
to · Container rates, Asia–Europe
relation · affects_cost
weight · 0.71
samples · 214
version · 3, supersedes v2
- Dataset row
- Filing excerpt
- Regression stats
- Curator note
The evidence
Asia–Europe composite rate rose to 4,412 USD per FEU, from 3,180 the prior week, with carriers citing rerouting around the Cape.
Freight rate index · weekly composite · observed 2024-01-16
Regression over 214 prior transit disruptions · r² 0.63
An edge whose evidence cannot be produced does not enter the map.
· 04 / The honest edge
What it does when it cannot say.
The hard part of a graph is refusing to draw the line. Mimir carries the weight it can defend, marks the edges it cannot, and withholds the rest by name.
Three edges, three honestiesNothing here is synthesized
· 05 / Inside the room
What the map is made of.
The walk above uses all of it: a deduped event ledger, typed and versioned edges, the evidence under each one, the analog library, and the scenarios built on top.
Disruption events · Deduped across sources · Region and severity · Status and first observed
One ledger, deduped, so the same event arriving from three feeds is one row rather than three.
Typed relationships · Weighted · Evidenced · Supersede-versioned
A superseded edge is versioned rather than overwritten, so the map has a history you can read.
Filing excerpts · Dataset rows · Regression statistics · Curator notes
Every edge carries its receipt. This is the difference between a graph and a guess.
Analog events · Realized per-subject moves
A curated library of historical analogs, with what actually happened to each subject around them.
Low, base and severe scenarios · Revenue at risk · Named inputs
Optera is pre-launch. Surfaces open as each one is ready, so this lists what the room is built to carry rather than a launch-day checklist.
· 06 / What it draws on
Where the numbers come from.
Lobbying, contracts and committee seats from Washington.
Disruption as it happens, from the physical-world group.
Plus the corporate wire, for events that never reach a filing.
· 07 / How it proves
Sourced, or withheld.
Severity is withheld until there are enough trailing samples to defend it. An edge with no defensible magnitude carries no weight rather than an invented one, and a revenue-at-risk figure that cannot be computed from cited inputs comes back as not computable, naming the input that is missing.
The seam runs under all four rooms. See what every number owes you, and the source registry for every feed behind it.
· 08 / The other rooms